Two London hospitals under the National Health Service (NHS) are preparing to trial an AI system that can predict patient mortality and health risks using standard heart tests. The technology, known as AI-ECG Risk Estimator (AIRE), will be tested from mid-2024 at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust and Chelsea and Westminster Hospital NHS Foundation Trust.
The system analyzes results from electrocardiogram (ECG) tests to identify potential health issues that medical professionals might not detect through conventional examination. Research published in Lancet Digital Health indicates the technology can predict mortality risk within a 10-year period with 78% accuracy.
How AIRE Works and Its Capabilities
The AI system examines electrical signals from ECG results to detect patterns and analyze genetic information from the heart’s structure. It can identify various cardiac conditions before they fully develop, including heart rhythm abnormalities and heart failure.
Dr. Arunashis Sau, a cardiology registrar at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, explained that AIRE was developed to enhance rather than replace medical professionals. “The goal here was to do something that was superhuman. So not replace or speed up something that a doctor could do, but to do something that a doctor cannot do from looking at heart tracing,” he said.
The technology’s development involved training on a substantial dataset of 1.16 million ECG test results from 189,539 patients. Research shows AIRE can predict future serious heart rhythm problems with 76% accuracy and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease – a condition where arteries narrow and restrict blood flow – in 70% of cases.
Implementation and Potential Impact
Dr. Fu Siong Ng, a consultant cardiologist at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, outlined the planned implementation: “The vision is that every patient having an ECG in hospital will be put through the model. Clinicians will then be informed, not just about what the diagnosis is, but a prediction of a whole range of health risks, which means that we can then intervene early and prevent disease.”
The initial trial will involve several hundred patients, with plans to expand the program in future studies. Healthcare providers can use AIRE’s predictions to implement preventive measures, including weight loss programs and early medical interventions for patients identified as high-risk.
The technology’s introduction comes at a crucial time, as recent data shows an increase in premature deaths from cardiovascular problems in the UK. The NHS has observed a rise in young people under 40 being treated for heart attacks, with factors such as increasing obesity rates and associated health issues like high blood pressure and diabetes contributing to this trend.
While AIRE represents a significant advancement in predictive healthcare technology, medical professionals emphasize that it serves as a tool for early intervention rather than providing absolute predictions about life expectancy. The system’s implementation across the wider NHS network could occur within five years, pending successful trials at the London hospitals.
(Photo by Joshua Chehov on Unsplash)
